North East Mayor Kim McGuinness is in India this week with a delegation of nearly 200 people from across northern England.

She chairs the Great North, which is running the first joint mayor-led UK trade mission to the country. Six other northern mayors are taking part, and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds is joining part of the mission.

The visit comes three months after the UK-India trade agreement took effect on 15 July, and takes in Delhi, Bengaluru and Hyderabad. The government told ITV News the mission "could be worth £1 billion to the UK economy".

That is a separate figure from the trade agreement itself, which the Department for Business and Trade estimates will add £450m a year to the North in the long run: £210m for the North West, £170m for Yorkshire and the Humber and £70m for the North East.

The £70m is not export sales, investment or contracts from the mission. It is an estimate of how much bigger the region's economy could be in the long run with the agreement than without it.

The government rounds the regional figures and calls them an indication of scale, not a forecast. They cannot say which companies will win business.

The number is driven by what the region makes. The government says the North East and the West Midlands show the strongest gains in England relative to the size of their economies, because both have large motor vehicle and machinery industries.

The North East's £70m is the smallest of the three northern figures because its economy is the smallest. As a share of that economy it is 0.12 per cent, against 0.10 per cent for the North West and 0.11 per cent for Yorkshire and the Humber. The gaps are small.

India is cutting tariffs on 90 per cent of its tariff lines, covering 92 per cent of its current goods imports from Britain, in stages. Cars and car parts show how it works.

Tariffs on cars that reached 110 per cent fall to 10 per cent, but only within a quota. A UK-made vehicle gearbox that faced a 16.5 per cent tariff now faces 14.85 per cent, and the rate falls each year until it reaches zero in 2035.

A lower tariff does not create a customer. Exporters still need buyers, distribution and the capacity to deliver.

The North East sold about £100m of goods to India in 2025, against £500m from the North West and £300m from Yorkshire and the Humber. The figures are rounded and provisional.

The region accounts for 4.1 per cent of UK goods exports, the smallest share in England, and 1.9 per cent of those going to India. The £70m cannot be read as an increase on the £100m, because one measures the size of the economy and the other measures sales.

McGuinness describes the delegation as "the North's leading businesses, universities, sports clubs and visitor destinations". The programme covers trade, investment, innovation, culture and the visitor economy, as well as advanced manufacturing, life sciences, digital technology and clean energy. That reaches well beyond the car and machinery makers behind the £70m.

The government's India trade factsheet is due to be updated on 30 October, but it will be too early to judge the impact. Longer-term export growth, alongside evidence of new contracts and commercial partnerships, will give a clearer picture of what the agreement and the mission have achieved.